currently we have 2 problems, the guy who have to finish mr gox have still Bitcoins in worth of 1 billion, the country of bulgaria have bitcoins worth 3.3 billion which they can drop to the market.
the crash on 6. January was a result of thaht some gox bitcoins where been sold, untill there are so many coins around its hard to say btc will go back .
Another point is, after elliott waves we have go to 6k to get up to the 40k