Which prize would you pick out of the following 3?

Let's say you won a game show and you had the choice between ONE of the following three prizes:
100% chance to get $1 million
50% chance to get $2.5 million
10% chance to get $15 million

Which prize would you pick?

In terms of expected value/on average, the third option is best ($1.5 million) followed by the second ($1.25 million), with the first option being the worst ($1 million).

However, is expected value the only thing that should matter? Potentially, money doesn't have necessarily have a linear value to a person (i.e. such that twice the money isn't necessarily twice as valuable to someone) whether that be from a practical perspective, or a happiness perspective. For example you could buy a cheap phone that works almost as well, say 70% as well, as an expensive phone that might cost 10 times as much. Similarly, would winning $2 million actually make you twice as happy as if you won $1 million? For me, I think would be quite happy with either amount.

I think the decision might depend on how much money you already have, and how life changing of an amount it would be. A billionare who already has everything that they want, won't even notice whether they won or not, so they would probably just pick option 3, because that's simply what will give them the most on average. On the other hand, a homeless person with nothing of value, would have their life drastically improved regardless of which amount they win, so it makes a huge difference in their happiness whether they win or not, so they might simply want to guarantee a win.

I would pick 50% option. sure the 3rd option (15 million) has the best reward but also highest risk. I feel the second option is way better.

I would take the 100% chance any day of the week.

You can do so much with 1 million and as long as you don't get too ahead of yourself you can use what you have left after improving your current situation to make you more money.

I like to gamble but I feel like in this situation it would be better off to play it safe.

Yeah that's still a 50% chance to walk away with nothing though . Would you be willing to gamble $1 million (since you had the choice to guarantee getting that amount) in order for a 50/50 shot at getting $2.5 million? It's not really effectively that different to buying a lottery ticket for $1 million, in order for a chance to win $2.5 million, since you've effectively already earned that $1 million.

Also, I just realised this is very similar to the gameshow Deal or No Deal with the last briefcase where you choose to keep your original or swap, and one briefcase has $1 million while the other has 50 cents. The option is:
1. Deal, and guarantee that you walk away with $400k.
2. No deal, and risk walking away with nothing.
3. No deal, and potentially walk away with $1 million.

I'm gonna say option one because the money there is you'd be grateful for and pog spend money wisely

Option 1 because it's GUARANTEED. It would be enough to pay off debt, make a few investments, tuck a bit away and still have a bit to live frivolously.

28-05-2019, 04:06 AM

Hauqer Wrote: Let's say you won a game show and you had the choice between ONE of the following three prizes:
100% chance to get $1 million
50% chance to get $2.5 million
10% chance to get $15 million

Which prize would you pick?

In terms of expected value/on average, the third option is best ($1.5 million) followed by the second ($1.25 million), with the first option being the worst ($1 million).

However, is expected value the only thing that should matter? Potentially, money doesn't have necessarily have a linear value to a person (i.e. such that twice the money isn't necessarily twice as valuable to someone) whether that be from a practical perspective, or a happiness perspective. For example you could buy a cheap phone that works almost as well, say 70% as well, as an expensive phone that might cost 10 times as much. Similarly, would winning $2 million actually make you twice as happy as if you won $1 million? For me, I think would be quite happy with either amount.

I think the decision might depend on how much money you already have, and how life changing of an amount it would be. A billionare who already has everything that they want, won't even notice whether they won or not, so they would probably just pick option 3, because that's simply what will give them the most on average. On the other hand, a homeless person with nothing of value, would have their life drastically improved regardless of which amount they win, so it makes a huge difference in their happiness whether they win or not, so they might simply want to guarantee a win.

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100% Student Debt sucks Sometimes in life it's a bit thought we choose to buy ticketswin a lottery only to waste money knowing someone else is winning your earnings lol. Does anyone think about that, honestly it's not to important in my case. I feel like we already waste our lives away.

100%... on my opinion OBVIOUSLY this one

how would you feel to get a chance to play for this prizes,
lose, and look behind... how would u feel? Like... You could win.

But you didn't, and you had the 100% chance to -.- that would feel bad

For me the first option is the best. You have a guarrante that you will get the prize. I probably would not spend that all money in my whole life.

I'd take the 100% chance, 1m is enough for a while and it'll help me.